Working Papers

Julian Simon Still Winning Against Peak Oil

We reported on the five-year Tierney-Simmons oil price wager back in 2005Mark Perry notes that Tierney has all but won his bet against peak oil crankery:

In August of 2005, Houston banking executive Matthew Simmons and New York Times columnist John Tierney each put up $5,000 and made a bet about the price of oil in 2010. 

The wager was based on the price of oil in 2010, specifically on the average daily price for the entire year, adjusted for inflation into 2005 dollars. If the inflation-adjusted oil price this year is $200 or more per barrel, Mr. Simmons wins $10,000 plus interest, and if the average price this year is less than $200, Tierney wins the bet. 

The bet was made public in Tierney’s New York Times column on August 23, 2005 called “The $10,000.00 Question.”

Julian Simon is still winning from beyond the grave:

Julian Simon’s widow put up $2,500 towards Tierney’s $5,000 obligation, to honor the tradition of her husband’s famous wager with Paul Ehrlich.

posted on 08 July 2010 by skirchner in Economics, Oil

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