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Pundits Putting Their Money Where Their Mouth Is

Two pundits prepared to put down some serious green on the five year outlook for oil prices, with John Tierney following the advice of the late Julian Simon:

if you find anyone willing to bet that natural resource prices are going up, take him for all you can.

posted on 23 August 2005 by skirchner in Economics

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Bad news is that I’m already down $20 betting gold and oil would fall in the year to last July—good news is I’ve gone double or nothing for the next 12 months…

Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)  on  08/23  at  02:56 PM


Longer terms bets are probably safer.  Even Tierney is not giving himself much wriggle room.  While commodities are on a long-term secular downtrend in real terms, the intervening cycles can be pretty wicked.

Posted by skirchner  on  08/23  at  11:17 PM


Tierney is surely on the money.<a href=“http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_shale#Economics”>Shale oil becomes an economic[/a] source of hydrocarbon fuel so long as the price of well-sourced oil stays above $60 per barrel. There is plenty of this stuff lying in the ground.

The United States Office of Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves estimates the world supply of oil shale at 1662 billion barrels of which 1200 billion barrels is in the United States.

Thats more than enough oil reserves for the USA, PRC, IND and USE to keep their economies running on oil priced at < $100 per bbl for the next generation.

Posted by Jack Strocchi  on  08/25  at  04:01 AM



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