Working Papers

The UK General Election as Lose-Lose

David Frum on why the UK general election outcome is a no-win deal for conservatives.

The Intrade contract for Labour winning the most seats in the Commons has managed to rally from levels that were already pricing this outcome as a near certainty.  Even in the absence of an outright Commons majority, this outcome would see Labour well placed to form government.  The market is not giving much credence to the scenario in which enough Labour voters stay home or vote Lib-Dem to hand the Tories the largest number of seats, yet I would have thought this was a non-negligible risk.  Never underestimate the left’s capacity for spite!

posted on 14 April 2005 by skirchner in Economics

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