Working Papers

Prediction Market in US Monthly Unemployment Rate

Contracts on the monthly US unemployment rate make a welcome return at Intrade.  There was a time when Intrade offered contracts on all US economic data releases, including non-farm payrolls, but the market-makers gave up on these contracts due to an insufficient number of noise traders.  Economic derivatives markets have a poor track record of success in the US, with the CME shutting down its economic derivatives in 2007.

Perhaps the most successful economic derivatives market is iPredict in New Zealand, which also offers contracts on Australian economic data and the RBA’s official cash rate.

posted on 11 January 2010 by skirchner in Economics, Financial Markets

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