Working Papers

MNI-Deutsche Börse Economic Forecasting Competition – Final Round

Congratulations to Jos Theelen of the University of Amsterdam, who took out first prize in the MNI-Deutsche Börse Economic Forecasting Competition. Along with Daiwa Capital’s Mike Moran and myself, Jos was the only other person to place in two of the three forecasting rounds.

This was my first foray back into forecasting since the financial crisis and it was interesting to see that many of the pre-crisis forecasting relationships still hold. The final June round was particularly brutal, however, given the bearish turn in the US data.

Hopefully, MNI-DB will turn this into a regular event. There are too few independent, public tests of economic forecasting ability.

posted on 13 July 2011 by skirchner in Economics, Financial Markets

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Back luck, Stephen. Was it mainly the May jobs report and ISM manufacturing PMI that got you?

Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)  on  07/13  at  10:10 AM

May payrolls and ISM burned just about everyone I think, so can’t blame relative performance on those two, only absolute performance. Everyone did worse in the final round.

Posted by skirchner  on  07/13  at  10:27 AM

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