Working Papers

If the China ‘Bubble’ Bursts…

International Economy poses the somewhat loaded question to 30 pundits, including my CIS colleague John Lee. My answer would be ‘go back and look what happened in 1998-99.’ China has grown in importance since, not least to Australia, but Australia has already weathered a scenario in which East Asia and commodity prices crashed.

posted on 23 December 2010 by skirchner in Economics, Financial Markets

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In 1998-99 our economy was more diverse.  A decade of the Dutch Disease has left our non-resource exporters very weak with little ability to bounce back.  A sharp correction in the currency will obviously help, but an exporter like me can’t take advantage of that when I’ve laid off most of my staff.

We have made a one-way bet on China.  There’s no turning back now.

Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)  on  12/31  at  06:14 PM

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