About
Articles
Monographs
Working Papers
Reviews
Archive
Contact
 
 

From “China Shock” to deglobalisation shock: China’s WTO accession and US economic engagement 20 years on

I have a new report out with USSC, From “China Shock” to deglobalisation shock: China’s WTO accession and US economic engagement 20 years on.

Main points are as follows:

• China’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001 was an important element of its growing integration into the world economy, as well as its domestic economic reform program dating back to 1978.

• In terms of access to US markets, accession only served to make permanent access China enjoyed since the 1980s.

• “China shock” literature highlights the number of US manufacturing jobs lost to import competition from China in previous decades.

• However, a broader assessment of the economic impact of the “China shock” suggests it has been a net positive for the US economy.

• US policymakers are increasingly critical of the role of the World Trade Organization and its failure to discipline China’s trade and industrial policies, but Australian policymakers see G7-led WTO reform as a key element to push back against China’s coercive economic diplomacy.

• President Trump’s trade war and sanctions against China led Chinese elites to equally question the extent of economic interdependence with the United States. President Xi Jinping revived the Maoist concept of “self-reliance,” explicitly citing the rise of foreign unilateralism and trade protectionism as a motivation.

• Far from calling out and disciplining China’s behaviour, President Trump’s trade policies, maintained by the Biden administration, have encouraged China to double-down on its state-led development model and strategic industry and trade policy, while potential multilateral solutions and processes have been neglected and under-utilised.

• The growth in discriminatory trade measures among G20 economies since the global financial crisis in 2008 demonstrates that the problems in the multilateral trading system are not specific to China.

• A key to restoring domestic political support for US leadership of the multilateral trading system is to reframe that leadership in terms of strategic competition with China around the rules and norms of the global economy.

• Effective US leadership of the multilateral trading system would not only promote US foreign policy objectives such as prosecuting its strategic competition with China but would also discipline US domestic economic policy in ways that better serve its economic interests. It also provides a rules-based framework to manage trade frictions arising from climate mitigation under the Paris Agreement and growth in the digital economy.

posted on 24 January 2022 by skirchner in Economics, Free Trade & Protectionism

(0) Comments | Permalink | Main

| More

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s pandemic response and the New Keynesian trap

The latest issue of Agenda includes a symposium on Economic Policy during Covid. Includes a contribution from me on ‘The Reserve Bank of Australia’s pandemic response and the New Keynesian trap.’ Note text was finalised mid-year. A lot of water under the bridge since then.

posted on 10 December 2021 by skirchner in Economics, Monetary Policy

(0) Comments | Permalink | Main

| More

A Geoeconomic Alliance: The Potential and Limits of Economic Statecraft

I have a new report out with the United States Studies Centre, A Geoeconomic Alliance: The Potential and Limits of Economic Statecraft. The report examines the history and application of economic statecraft and its relevance to the Australia-US alliance and US-China strategic competition. An important theme that emerges from the report is the limits to economic statecraft in pursuing geopolitical objectives. In particular, China’s economic statecraft has prompted defensive reactions in target countries, including strengthening cooperation with the United States.

There is a short version in Australian Outlook.

posted on 30 September 2021 by skirchner in Economics, Foreign Affairs & Defence, Foreign Investment, Free Trade & Protectionism

(0) Comments | Permalink | Main

| More

Countering China’s trade coercion should be alliance agenda

I have an op-ed in the AFR arguing that China’s economic statecraft, including its attempted coercion of Australia, has mostly been unsuccessful in promoting its geopolitical objectives and may prompt a collective allied response.

posted on 21 September 2021 by skirchner in Economics, Foreign Affairs & Defence, Free Trade & Protectionism

(0) Comments | Permalink | Main

| More

G7 tax deal is a threat to reformers

I have an op-ed in the AFR arguing that the G7’s proposed cartelisation of the international tax system threatens reform-oriented small open economies, but Australia could perversely benefit given its high tax burden on capital. Ironically, the proposed 15% minimum corporate tax could backfire and become a floor target for international tax competition. Full text below the fold.

continue reading

posted on 08 June 2021 by skirchner in Economics

(0) Comments | Permalink | Main

| More

My Guest Apperance on the BIP Show

My guest apperance on the BIP Show podcast. We talk the US economy, election, MMT and more.

posted on 24 July 2020 by skirchner in Economics

(0) Comments | Permalink | Main

| More

Globalisation and labour productivity in the OECD: What are the implications for post-pandemic recovery and resilience?

I have a new report out with the United States Studies Centre on ‘Globalisation and labour productivity in the OECD: What are the implications for post-pandemic recovery and resilience?’

Globalisation is measured on the basis of both the depth and breadth of international connections and so is consistent with seeking greater diversification among trading partners to increase resilience to international shocks.

The report finds a positive relationship between globalisation and productivity for the OECD over the period 1970-2017 and provides a basis for measuring the loss of productivity due to the COVID-19 de-globalisation shock.

The report also finds a negative relationship between the government share of consumption spending and labour productivity, pointing to the need to wind back COVID-19 stimulus measures in the long-run, although these should not be withdrawn prematurely.

The report underscores the importance of restoring and improving Australia’s international connectedness as part of the government’s effort to boost post-pandemic productivity and resilience.

posted on 04 June 2020 by skirchner in Economics

(0) Comments | Permalink | Main

| More

My Substack newsletter

This blog is a legacy medium, but still has a few hundred subscribers via RSS. If you would prefer to get content alerts via email rather than RSS, you can do so via my Substack newsletter.

posted on 30 April 2020 by skirchner in Economics

(0) Comments | Permalink | Main

| More

What COVID-19 means for Australian productivity

I have a piece at the Committee for the Economic Development of Australia blog on the implications of the current pandemic for Australian labour productivity based on my recent report for USSC.

David Uren also writes up my report for the Australian Strategic Policy Institute blog, The Strategist.

posted on 23 April 2020 by skirchner in Economics

(0) Comments | Permalink | Main

| More

My interview with Scott Sumner

My interview with Scott Sumner from the Mercatus Center at George Mason University on monetary and fiscal policy responses to the pandemic, the future of globalisation and his forthcoming book on market monetarism.

posted on 14 April 2020 by skirchner in Economics

(0) Comments | Permalink | Main

| More

The ‘reserve currency’ myth: The US dollar’s current and future role in the world economy

Very long time readers of this blog will know that the future of the US dollar was much debated in these pages in the mid-2000s. I have given these ideas a systematic treatment in a new report for the United States Studies Centre, The ‘reserve currency’ myth: The US dollar’s current and future role in the world economy.

This year, the euro celebrated its 20th anniversary. At the time of its launch at the beginning of 1999, it was widely expected the euro would assume a role equal to that of the US dollar in the international monetary system. Despite some early gains, in net terms, the euro has not increased its share since its inception two decades ago.

The campaign to internationalise the RMB from 2009 has also faltered. Measures of RMB globalisation have gone nowhere since 2016 as China’s communist party has prioritised state control. The inclusion of the RMB in the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights basket was little more than a vanity project.

posted on 11 November 2019 by skirchner in Economics, Financial Markets

(0) Comments | Permalink | Main

| More

When interest rates approach zero, the RBA must rethink monetary policy

My explainer for the ABC Online on the RBA’s policy options as interest rates approach zero.

posted on 08 October 2019 by skirchner in Economics, Monetary Policy

(0) Comments | Permalink | Main

| More

Australia’s slowing economy: how should the government and Reserve Bank respond?

Brendan Coates, Emma Dawson and I go head to head in the Guardian Australia over how the government and RBA should respond to an emerging downturn

posted on 21 September 2019 by skirchner in Economics, Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy

(0) Comments | Permalink | Main

| More

Australian Business Economists Event on QE

Australian Business Economists hosted a Lunchtime Briefing on QE in Australia? What would it look like? with Ms Lyn Cobley, Chief Executive, Westpac Insitutional Bank, Dr Stephen Grenville AO, Non-resident Fellow, Lowy Institute, and myself.

Ross Gittins summarises the event in his write-up for the SMH.

The text of my remarks can be found here.

posted on 26 August 2019 by skirchner in Economics, Monetary Policy

(0) Comments | Permalink | Main

| More

I have a Substack

I have a Substack. Nothing you won’t find here or elsewhere, but available for those who like the medium.

posted on 15 August 2019 by skirchner in Economics, Financial Markets

(0) Comments | Permalink | Main

| More

Page 1 of 97 pages  1 2 3 >  Last ›

Follow insteconomics on Twitter