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The Robertson-Keen Wager

Rory Robertson gets ready to send Steve Keen on a long walk:

To make it interesting, I offered Dr Keen a challenge…

On the maybe 1% chance that he is right, and capital-city home prices do indeed fall by 40% within the next five years - starting from Q2 2008, and as measured by the ABS - I will walk from Canberra to the top of Mt Kosciusko (that’s maybe 200km followed by a 2228-metre incline).

If Dr Keen turns out to be less than half right, as I expect, and home prices drop by (much) less than 20%, he will take that long walk. Moreover, the loser must wear a tee-shirt saying: “I was hopelessly wrong on home prices! Ask me how.”

We now have a bet, and I expect to record an easy win within two years.

 

posted on 27 November 2008 by skirchner in Economics

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