The Robertson-Keen Wager
Rory Robertson gets ready to send Steve Keen on a long walk:
To make it interesting, I offered Dr Keen a challenge…
On the maybe 1% chance that he is right, and capital-city home prices do indeed fall by 40% within the next five years - starting from Q2 2008, and as measured by the ABS - I will walk from Canberra to the top of Mt Kosciusko (that’s maybe 200km followed by a 2228-metre incline).
If Dr Keen turns out to be less than half right, as I expect, and home prices drop by (much) less than 20%, he will take that long walk. Moreover, the loser must wear a tee-shirt saying: “I was hopelessly wrong on home prices! Ask me how.”
We now have a bet, and I expect to record an easy win within two years.
posted on 28 November 2008 by skirchner in Economics
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