Working Papers

The Ever Receding Doomsday Cult Trade

For those of you who have given up on a US recession in 2008, Intrade has rolled out a contract for a US recession in 2009.  A 2008 recession is still priced at around a 30% chance, with the contracts for individual quarters still implying a better than even chance that growth will be positive for every quarter this year.

Intrade has also rolled out recession contracts for Japan, Germany, the UK, France, Italy and Ireland for 2008 and 2009.  Like the contracts for the US, the bids and offers suggest little real conviction behind the idea of a global recession.

Intrade is also running contracts on who will be the next leader of Australia’s federal parliamentary Liberal Party.

posted on 02 July 2008 by skirchner in Economics, Financial Markets

(7) Comments | Permalink | Main

| More

Next entry: Alan Wood Tributes

Previous entry: Alan Wood Retires

Follow insteconomics on Twitter