Working Papers

Federal Election Betting Market Probabilities

Simon Jackman provides a handy update on federal election outcome probabilities derived from Centrebet and updated daily at 9am AEST. Along with iPredict, Centrebet is showing a sharp decline in the probability of a Labor win, reflecting recent opinion polls, but also (perfectly legal) inside information:

SENIOR Labor figures have placed significant bets on the outcome of the federal election, with some punting against their own party. A major betting agency said bets had been placed on members of the opposing team to win marginal seats in NSW and Queensland.

Centrebet primary analyst Neil Evans said: ‘‘I can’t tell you who but I can tell you this: these are people very high up betting on some of the critical seats and I can tell you they don’t always stay faithful to their party - they swap sides.

‘‘They are well-known Labor figures and associates that are punting on these seats. A lot of Labor-connected money has been backing a Coalition win in marginal seats and, to a lesser extent, the Coalition has been doing the reverse.’‘

The Sun-Herald understands the figures include parliamentary staffers, advisers and senior party officials.

posted on 01 August 2010 by skirchner in Financial Markets, Politics

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