Working Papers

Right Forecast, Wrong Trade II

Mike Shedlock is far from impressed with Peter Schiff.

posted on 27 January 2009 by skirchner in Economics, Financial Markets

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Schiff isn’t 100% solid on all areas of economics, but he’s an amateur economist so we can understand why. He does make exaggerated predictions, although he has been right on the big issues - e.g. price of gold, coming recession, housing market. For better insights, we need to turn to the more academic and qualified economists in the Austrian tradition who predicted the current mess. And there are plenty of those too, but strangely you never mention them, probably because they aren’t so easy to knock down.

I love it how economists of the left and right can come to totally different conclusions by selectively interpreting evidence to support pre-existing political conclusions. Although most people who use this “economics is not a real science” critique aren’t smart enough to explain the specifics, we can thank Mises, Hayek and Rothbard for totally demolishing the methodology of mainstream economics.

Posted by Sukrit Sabhlok  on  01/28  at  01:06 AM

Since when do you quote Mish?  He’s a paid up member of the doomsayer’s club.  Next you’ll be quoting Roubini!

Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)  on  01/28  at  04:16 PM

That’s exactly why I’m quoting him!  Doomer fratricide is to be encouraged.

Posted by skirchner  on  01/29  at  03:41 PM

I would have thought the optimists would have torn each other to pieces by now.  You guys seem to be dealing with it by simply denying reality, and asserting that its all due to “government failure”.

I suppose when your world falls apart, and your entire belief system is discredited, the best way of dealing with it is to stick your head in the sand and shout “its not happening!”

Talking of the work falling apart, it seems China really is in recession.

Stephen Green of Standard Chartered has constructed an indicator of Chinese economic activity that isn’t based on the government’s reported GDP data. It suggests a far bigger fall in Chinese output than in 1998.

Chinese output shrank in the fourth quarter. The first quarter isn’t going to be any better.

What odds can I get on a China recession in 09 now?

Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)  on  01/30  at  10:17 AM

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