Working Papers

Labor Voters More Confident Following the Demise of Kevin Rudd

The 11.1% surge in consumer confidence between June and July shows a clear partisan divide, with confidence on the part of Coalition voters up 19.8% compared to a more modest 3.9% for ALP voters, but this is still a big surge in confidence among Labor voters for a series that has an historical standard deviation of 5.1%. The ~75-80% probability of a Labor victory being priced in betting and prediction markets suggests that Rudd’s demise has significantly improved Labor’s election prospects.

Meanwhile, Frank Brennan thinks we should give Rudd credit just for showing up to work:

Having resigned as prime minister, Rudd had the good grace to turn up to question time, taking his place on the backbench.


posted on 16 July 2010 by skirchner in Economics, Financial Markets, Opinion Polls, Politics

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