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Real Commodity Prices in the Long-Run

The RBA Bulletin puts the recent boom in commodity prices in long-run perspective.  The article includes the following chart of the real gold price.  The chart shows that gold makes a poor long-run investment.  The best that could be said for gold is that it has held its value over the long-run, but with some very pronounced cycles along the way.  The long-run returns to gold are paltry compared to the real returns from equity indices like the S&P 500 over the last century.

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posted on 19 April 2007 by skirchner in Economics, Financial Markets

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In contrast the Real Oil Price chart (Graph 7) looks pretty good:
http://www.rba.gov.au/PublicationsAndResearch/Bulletin/bu_apr07/Graphs/rec_rise_com_prices_long_run_pers_graph7.gif

I keep reading predictions that its heading down to $50 or $40 but it remains stubbornly high.

Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)  on  04/28  at  11:38 AM



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