Inflation for the Long-Run

Jim Hamilton points to his Phillips curve relation, which is forecasting deflation over the near-term.  For the long-run, he suggests we should look to the fiscal theory of the price level:

The value of the new Federal Reserve liabilities ultimately will be determined by the long-term fiscal soundness of the U.S. government….Inflation is not something you should be afraid of for 2010. But what we need is a convincing commitment from the government to both near-term stimulus and longer-term fiscal responsibility in order to be assured that it’s not a concern over the next decade.

And that’s not what I’m seeing from the U.S. Congress.

Meanwhile, Thomas Frank contemplates an evil plot to stick it to the gold bugs: putting Fort Knox on eBay.  Not that it would work, but there is a certain irony in those who fear inflation taking refuge in the one real asset that is potentially the most vulnerable to a surge in supply from central banks and governments.

posted on 21 January 2010 by skirchner in Economics, Financial Markets, Fiscal Policy, Gold, Monetary Policy

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